Letter From Washington: Changing the Path to the Presidency

WASHINGTON — Imagine if the 2012 election had turned out this way: President Barack Obama won the popular vote by five million votes and almost 4 percentage points, taking seven of the eight largest states, as he did, yet the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, took the oath of office last week.

Such a scenario might not be far-fetched if some Republican politicians in statehouses around the country get their way.

U.S. presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College. Each state gets one elector for each senator, or two apiece, plus additional electors based on the number of congressional districts it has. With the exception of two states, Maine and Nebraska, electors are awarded on a winner-take-all basis; 270 of a total of 538 are necessary to become president.

Individual states set the rules for these electors; the current system, by most accounts, has worked well. Three times — twice in the 19th century and then in 2000 — the Electoral College victor lost the popular vote.

Now, Republican state legislators in as many as a half-dozen states where they control the governmental machinery even though their state was carried by the Democratic candidate in the past couple of presidential elections want to change the system and tilt it decidedly in their party’s favor. They would do this by scrapping the winner-take-all rule and awarding electors by congressional districts.

“This would amount to a legal subversion of democracy to game the system for political advantage,” says the legal scholar Walter Dellinger, who served as U.S. solicitor general under President Bill Clinton.

That’s not a frivolous alarm. Republican legislators, with tacit support from their governors, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are advocating this. The party’s national chairman, Reince Priebus, is keeping a low profile and signaling encouragement.

To gauge the potential effect, consider what would have happened if these states, along with Virginia, Florida and Ohio, where Republicans also control the statehouses, had divided electoral votes this way in the most recent presidential election.

Mr. Obama carried all these states, sweeping 106 electoral votes. But Mr. Romney won two-thirds of the congressional districts; if all else had been equal, the Republican would have carried the Electoral College, becoming the first president who was trounced in the popular vote.

Scratching your head? Some of this maneuvering is a result of redistricting or gerrymandering of congressional districts, a process largely controlled by Republicans after their big victories in 2010. Also, Democrats tend to congregate in the same districts, while Republicans are more diffuse.

Two examples: Mr. Obama won Pennsylvania by five points and Michigan by nine points, clear-cut by any standard. Yet Mr. Romney carried 13 of the 18 congressional districts in Pennsylvania and 10 of the 14 in Michigan and would have won a substantial majority of delegates in both states that he lost decisively.

Allotting presidential electors by congressional district would increase the incentives for partisan gerrymandering, already a factor in congressional dysfunction.

There is a longstanding and substantive debate over whether presidents should be decided by the Electoral College or the popular vote. That flared anew when George W. Bush won the presidency 12 years ago even though Al Gore won the popular vote.

Supporters of a change say it would create a genuine national election. Last autumn, Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney focused almost all their resources and time in eight states, all carried by the president. In a general election, voters in places like San Diego, Houston, New Orleans and Buffalo, New York, only lay eyes on candidates who are in town for a quick-hit fund-raiser.

Defenders of the Electoral College dismiss this argument, claiming the present system strikes a political balance between states and regions that the Founding Fathers envisioned. A direct popular election, they contend, would depersonalize the campaign, turning into nothing more than incessant money-grabbing and television advertising. The focus last time was on a handful of states; Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama had to spend considerable time meeting real voters in Columbus, Ohio, or the Washington and Denver suburbs.

Either the current Electoral College or a decision by popular vote, if the prolonged ballot counting in some states could be remedied, would produce a winner with legitimacy. The controversy over Mr. Bush’s election in 2000 wasn’t related to the system but whether he really won Florida, which gave him the Electoral College victory.

Still, changing to a popular vote probably would require a constitutional amendment with approval by two-thirds of both houses of Congress and three-quarters of the states. It’s not going to happen.

What might stop these attempts is if smart Republicans realize how manipulative it looks, and that it could come back to bite them; that’s the view of the former party chairman and ex-governor of Mississippi, Haley Barbour. And such a system would dilute the clout of the states that adopt it, which is why Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia is opposing any change.

If this sort of political coup had been pulled off earlier, instead of celebrations on the streets of Washington during the presidential inauguration last week, there would have been protests.

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Pentagon to boost cybersecurity force

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Pentagon plans to assign significantly more personnel in coming years to counter increasing threats against U.S. government computer networks and conduct offensive operations against foreign foes, a U.S. defense official said on Sunday.

The plan, which would increase both military and civilian staffing at U.S. Cyber Command, comes as the Pentagon moves toward elevating the new command and putting it on the same level as the major combatant commands.

The official said no formal decisions had been made on the expanding staffing levels or changing Cyber Command into a “unified” command like U.S. Strategic Command, which currently oversees cyber command and the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal.

Any changes to the combatant command structure would be made based on strategic and operational needs, and take into account the need for efficient use of taxpayer dollars, said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly.

The Pentagon was working closely with U.S. Cyber Command and the major military commands to develop “the optimum force structure for successfully operating in cyberspace,” the official said.

The Washington Post, quoting senior defense officials, reported late Sunday that the Pentagon had decided to expand Cyber Command’s current staffing level of 900 to 4,900 in coming years.

The official confirmed that Cyber Command planned to expand its force significantly, but said the specific numbers cited by the Post were “pre-decisional.”

The newspaper said senior Pentagon officials had agreed to increase the force late last year amid a string of attacks, including one that wiped out more than 30,000 computers at a Saudi Arabian state oil company. it said

The plan calls for creating three types of force under the Cyber Command, said the defense official.

“National mission forces,” would protect computer systems that undergird electrical grids and other kinds of infrastructure. “Combat mission forces,” would help commanders abroad execute attacks or other offensive operations, while “cyber protection forces,” would focus on protecting the Defense Department’s own systems.

Details were still being worked out, the official said.

(Reporting by Sarah Lynch and Andrea Shalal-Esa; Editing by David Brunnstrom)

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Funniest Quotes We're Still Talking About from the SAG Awards

Tina gives a shout-out to Girls' baby mama Amy, Jennifer Lawrence's super sweet 16 win and more LOL one-liners

Credit: Michael Buckner/WireImage

Updated: Monday Jan 28, 2013 | 12:20 AM EST

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CDC: Flu seems to level off except in the West

New government figures show that flu cases seem to be leveling off nationwide. Flu activity is declining in most regions although still rising in the West.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says hospitalizations and deaths spiked again last week, especially among the elderly. The CDC says quick treatment with antiviral medicines is important, in particular for the very young or old. The season's first flu case resistant to treatment with Tamiflu was reported Friday.

Eight more children have died from the flu, bringing this season's total pediatric deaths to 37. About 100 children die in an average flu season.

There is still vaccine available although it may be hard to find. The CDC has a website that can help.

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CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/

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Euro, shares stall as investors turn cautious

LONDON (Reuters) - Rallies in European shares and the single currency stalled on Monday after strong gains last week as investors awaited confirmation that financial market conditions and the outlook for the euro area have improved.

Investor sentiment rose strongly on Friday after data showed European banks would repay more than expected of the emergency loans they borrowed from the European Central Bank (ECB) and that business sentiment in Germany was improving sharply.

A solid start to the corporate earnings season has also helped send many equity indexes to pre-financial crisis highs, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index closing last week at its highest level in over five years.

In the equity markets Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> shed 0.1 percent in early trade to 1,173.87 points, leveling off near its highest level for almost two years, though traders said there was still strong underlying demand.

"All European benchmarks are at their 2012-2013 highs. Every time there's even a slight pull-back, the buying pressure comes in," Aurel BGC chartist Gerard Sagnier said.

The market's cautious mood on Monday also followed a weaker session in Asia, where falls in technology companies saw the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> drop 0.4 percent.

The euro held near an 11-month high against the dollar $1.3440

Meanwhile, German government bond futures, a key gauge of investor sentiment, continued to ease, slipping a further 7 ticks to 142.40 on Monday, and gold is languishing near a two-week low as hopes for an economic recovery worldwide dampen the metal's appeal as a safe haven.

Investors are keenly awaiting the ECB's monthly data on bank lending to companies and consumers, due later, for confirmation that growth is returning to the economy. Italy will also provide a test of investor sentiment when it auctions almost 7 billion euros ($9.4 billion) of 2-year and 5-year bonds.

However, the main focus for investors this week will be on the U.S., where the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and where the nonfarm payrolls report is due out on Friday.

Oil prices were being held in check by the events coming up in the U.S., with Brent crude unchanged at $113.28 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 17 cents to $96.05 after seven straight weekly gains - the longest such streak since early 2009.

($1 = 0.7421 euros)

(Reporting by Richard Hubbard; Editing by Will Waterman)

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IHT Rendezvous: The Clinton Doctrine of American Foreign Policy

The partisan political theater, of course, was top-notch. Sen. Rand Paul’s declaration that he would have fired Hillary Rodham Clinton; her angry rebuttal of Sen. Ron Johnson’s insistence that the Obama administration misled the American people about the Benghazi attack; Sen. John McCain’s continued outrage at the slapdash security the State Department provided its employees.

Beneath the posturing, though, ran larger questions: what strategy does the United States have to counter the militant groups running rampant across North and West Africa? And what kind of secretary of state has Ms. Clinton been? In her last Congressional hearing in that position, Ms. Clinton expressed exasperation with Washington’s political trench warfare.

“We’ve got to get our act together,” she said.

Ms. Clinton has been a very good but very cautious secretary of state, many analysts say – one who, for the most part, kept her distance from Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine and other seemingly intractable conflicts.

One State Department official, while praising Ms. Clinton’s tenure, nonetheless looked forward to the arrival of Sen. John Kerry, her designated successor: “I came to admire Clinton as secretary of state, her focus on women and innovation in particular,” the official told me. “But am really happy to have someone in the job who does not retain political ambitions.”

In a recent assessment of Clinton’s tenure, Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution argued that she had enjoyed some success, including restoring the United States’ image abroad, but she made no historic breakthroughs, he said.

Mr. O’Hanlon argued that Ms. Clinton’s famed work ethic paid off. She made few mistakes, no major gaffes and did not “needlessly antagonize” friends or enemies. O’Hanlon called Ms. Clinton’s role in the administration’s “pivot to Asia” and tough stance toward China arguably “her greatest and most memorable contribution.”

The problem, as last week’s hearing showed, is that the Middle East and the threat of terrorism continue to dominate American foreign policy. Even as the United States becomes more energy independent, terrorist attacks like the kidnappings in a remote oil facility in Algeria will make headlines and influence markets. And barring a massive shift in American domestic politics, Israel’s security will continue to be viewed as a vital interest of the United States.

Ms. Clinton, to her credit, made forty trips to Europe that helped produce crippling new sanctions on Iran. Last fall, she helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. But she failed to personally engage in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

To be fair, the Obama White House may have limited her options. After promising more open debate than occurred under President George W. Bush, the Obama White House tightly controlled the formulation of American foreign policy. Critics have also accused Mr. Obama of being overly cautious in foreign affairs.

With the exception of the Libya intervention and the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, Mr. Obama was “coolly calculating and reluctant to engage” in his first-term foreign policy, The Economist magazine recently argued.

Mr. Obama, of course, is trying to avoid the over-reach his predecessor displayed in Iraq. He also faces enormous fiscal pressures at home. But there is a risk that the pendulum is swinging too far toward a smug isolationism in Washington.

As Ms. Clinton departs, worrying trends are emerging in the way America engages with the world. The new U.S. weapon of choice is the drone strike – a tactic that carries zero political risk at home but spreads anti-Americanism abroad.

Complex foreign policy problems that threaten American security are increasingly seen as “entanglements” best avoided. And there is a convenient view that there are no “good guys” in the power struggles now unfolding in the post-Arab-Spring Middle East.

The potential lesson of the bruising political battle over Benghazi is simple: Take few risks, turn embassies into bunkers and avoid political firestorms at home. In her testimony, Ms. Clinton passionately argued against that approach.

Declaring Somalia and Colombia success stories, she said the United States could counter militancy in Africa and the Middle East by working with regional organizations and training local security forces. U.S. funding and training of an African Union Mission in Somalia, or AMISOM, Ms. Clinton said, had slowly succeeded in driving back al-Shabaab and other Islamist forces. In Colombia, the government has driven back FARC rebels and narco-traffickers.

There have been setbacks and the efforts in both countries are imperfect. But local security forces trained and funded by the international community slowly gained ground in painstaking efforts over many years.

“What we have to do is recognize that we’re in for a long-term struggle here,” Ms. Clinton said at the hearing. “And that means we’ve got to pay attention to places that historically we have not chosen to or had to.”

During their heated exchange, Mr. McCain criticized Ms. Clinton and the Obama administration for not doing enough to train Libya’s security forces. Secretary Clinton replied that House Republicans had put a hold on the funding the administration requested to train Libyans.

“If this is a priority and we are serious about trying to help this government stand up security forces,” she said, “then we have to work together.”

Ms. Clinton is right. And so is Mr. McCain. Congressional politicking hinders the State Department. And the State Department executed terribly in Benghazi. But Ms. Clinton, who I have criticized in the past, won the day.

“We are in a new reality,” she said, referring to the change sweeping across the Middle East. “We are trying to makes sense of events that nobody had predicted but that we’re going to have to live with.”

Ms. Clinton called for the United States to show “humility” abroad and stop making national security issues “political footballs” at home. She said a Cold War style bipartisan agreement should be reached to launch a long-term American effort to strengthen local security forces and promote democracy across Africa and the post-Arab-Spring Middle East.

“Let’s be smart and learn from what we’ve done in the past,” she said. “Put forth a policy that wouldn’t go lurching from administration to administration but would be a steady one.”

“We have more assets than anyone in the world,” Ms. Clinton added, “but I think we’ve gotten a little bit off track in trying to figure out how best to utilize them.”

A “little bit off track” is a euphemism for partisanship endangering national security. If the U.S. doesn’t get its act together, expect more Benghazis.

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SAG Awards: Watch Live with PEOPLE

01/24/2013 at 06:30 PM EST

Happy Screen Actors Guild Awards!

On a night when the biggest stars of TV and film honor each other, we will be covering every inch of the red carpet beginning at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on our live pre-show, hosted by PEOPLE's Deputy Managing Editor Peter Castro and PEOPLE StyleWatch Managing Editor Susan Kaufman, right here on PEOPLE.com.

Join our @StyleWatchMag and @peoplemag Twitter party on Sunday to discuss the best dresses, the hottest hair and makeup and the most eye-popping jewels that nominees like Claire Danes, Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence will be wearing. Just use hashtag #PeopleSAG and your comments could appear on PEOPLE.com.

Once the show starts at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT), the fun continues as we track the winners, losers and best speeches of the night. PEOPLE editors and the stars, including Busy Phillips, will be Tweeting commentary, exclusive photos, behind-the-scenes tidbits and more on one of Hollywood's most heartfelt nights.

The 19th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards will air live on TNT and TBS on Sunday, Jan. 27, at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles. Be sure to join us!

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CDC: Flu seems to level off except in the West

New government figures show that flu cases seem to be leveling off nationwide. Flu activity is declining in most regions although still rising in the West.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says hospitalizations and deaths spiked again last week, especially among the elderly. The CDC says quick treatment with antiviral medicines is important, in particular for the very young or old. The season's first flu case resistant to treatment with Tamiflu was reported Friday.

Eight more children have died from the flu, bringing this season's total pediatric deaths to 37. About 100 children die in an average flu season.

There is still vaccine available although it may be hard to find. The CDC has a website that can help.

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CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/

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Wall Street Week Ahead: Bears hibernate as stocks near record highs

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks have been on a tear in January, moving major indexes within striking distance of all-time highs. The bearish case is a difficult one to make right now.

Earnings have exceeded expectations, the housing and labor markets have strengthened, lawmakers in Washington no longer seem to be the roadblock that they were for most of 2012, and money has returned to stock funds again.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> has gained 5.4 percent this year and closed above 1,500 - climbing to the spot where Wall Street strategists expected it to be by mid-year. The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> is 2.2 percent away from all-time highs reached in October 2007. The Dow ended Friday's session at 13,895.98, its highest close since October 31, 2007.

The S&P has risen for four straight weeks and eight consecutive sessions, the longest streak of days since 2004. On Friday, the benchmark S&P 500 ended at 1,502.96 - its first close above 1,500 in more than five years.

"Once we break above a resistance level at 1,510, we dramatically increase the probability that we break the highs of 2007," said Walter Zimmermann, technical analyst at United-ICAP, in Jersey City, New Jersey. "That may be the start of a rise that could take equities near 1,800 within the next few years."

The most recent Reuters poll of Wall Street strategists estimated the benchmark index would rise to 1,550 by year-end, a target that is 3.1 percent away from current levels. That would put the S&P 500 a stone's throw from the index's all-time intraday high of 1,576.09 reached on October 11, 2007.

The new year has brought a sharp increase in flows into U.S. equity mutual funds, and that has helped stocks rack up four straight weeks of gains, with strength in big- and small-caps alike.

That's not to say there aren't concerns. Economic growth has been steady, but not as strong as many had hoped. The household unemployment rate remains high at 7.8 percent. And more than 75 percent of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 26-week highs, suggesting the buying has come too far, too fast.

MUTUAL FUND INVESTORS COME BACK

All 10 S&P 500 industry sectors are higher in 2013, in part because of new money flowing into equity funds. Investors in U.S.-based funds committed $3.66 billion to stock mutual funds in the latest week, the third straight week of big gains for the funds, data from Thomson Reuters' Lipper service showed on Thursday.

Energy shares <.5sp10> lead the way with a gain of 6.6 percent, followed by industrials <.5sp20>, up 6.3 percent. Telecom <.5sp50>, a defensive play that underperforms in periods of growth, is the weakest sector - up 0.1 percent for the year.

More than 350 stocks hit new highs on Friday alone on the New York Stock Exchange. The Dow Jones Transportation Average <.djt> recently climbed to an all-time high, with stocks in this sector and other economic bellwethers posting strong gains almost daily.

"If you peel back the onion a little bit, you start to look at companies like Precision Castparts , Honeywell , 3M Co and Illinois Tool Works - these are big, broad-based industrial companies in the U.S. and they are all hitting new highs, and doing very well. That is the real story," said Mike Binger, portfolio manager at Gradient Investments, in Shoreview, Minnesota.

The gains have run across asset sizes as well. The S&P small-cap index <.spcy> has jumped 6.7 percent and the S&P mid-cap index <.mid> has shot up 7.5 percent so far this year.

Exchange-traded funds have seen year-to-date inflows of $15.6 billion, with fairly even flows across the small-, mid- and large-cap categories, according to Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group, in New York.

"Investors aren't really differentiating among asset sizes. They just want broad equity exposure," Colas said.

The market has shown resilience to weak news. On Thursday, the S&P 500 held steady despite a 12 percent slide in shares of Apple after the iPhone and iPad maker's results. The tech giant is heavily weighted in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 <.ndx> and in the past, its drop has suffocated stocks' broader gains.

JOBS DATA MAY TEST THE RALLY

In the last few days, the ratio of stocks hitting new highs versus those hitting new lows on a daily basis has started to diminish - a potential sign that the rally is narrowing to fewer names - and could be running out of gas.

Investors have also cited sentiment surveys that indicate high levels of bullishness among newsletter writers, a contrarian indicator, and momentum indicators are starting to also suggest the rally has perhaps come too far.

The market's resilience could be tested next week with Friday's release of the January non-farm payrolls report. About 155,000 jobs are seen being added in the month and the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 7.8 percent.

"Staying over 1,500 sends up a flag of profit taking," said Jerry Harris, president of asset management at Sterne Agee, in Birmingham, Alabama. "Since recent jobless claims have made us optimistic on payrolls, if that doesn't come through, it will be a real risk to the rally."

A number of marquee names will report earnings next week, including bellwether companies such as Caterpillar Inc , Amazon.com Inc , Ford Motor Co and Pfizer Inc .

On a historic basis, valuations remain relatively low - the S&P 500's current price-to-earnings ratio sits at 15.66, which is just a tad above the historic level of 15.

Worries about the U.S. stock market's recent strength do not mean the market is in a bubble. Investors clearly don't feel that way at the moment.

"We're seeing more interest in equities overall, and a lot of flows from bonds into stocks," said Paul Zemsky, who helps oversee $445 billion as the New York-based head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management. "We've been increasing our exposure to risky assets."

For the week, the Dow climbed 1.8 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.1 percent and the Nasdaq advanced 0.5 percent.

(Reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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India Ink: Jeet Thayil's Novel of Opium and Bombay Takes DSC Prize

Jeet Thayil, an Indian poet and author, won the DSC Prize for South Asian Literature at the Jaipur Literature Festival on Friday for his debut novel “Narcopolis.”

“Finally!” Mr. Thayil exclaimed when he was presented the award. His book, about the narcotic underbelly of Bombay 30 years ago, had been short-listed for four awards, but never won any.

The award is special because it is an Indian prize, he said. “How you are perceived at home does matter,” he said.

The Kerala-born author will take home a $50,000 prize purse. Mr. Thayil noted that it was a substantial amount of money, and part of the reason that the award was taken seriously.

“Writers like money,” he said. “We don’t have a job, but we have bills to pay.”

Mr. Thayil is the first Indian to win the award since its introduction by the infrastructure company DSC Limited in 2010. The first winner was a Pakistani writer, H.M. Naqvi, for his debut novel the “Home Boy.” Last year the Sri Lankan author Shehan Karunatilake’ s novel “Chinaman” won the prize.

A five-member jury received more than 80 entries for the prize, including translations of non-English writing. The contest is open to any writing about South Asia, not just to South Asian writers. The Indian poet and literary critic K. Satchidanandan, who led the jury, said, the award is significant because it is the first award that honors literary works about South Asia.

Other finalists included two Indians, two Pakistanis and a Bangladeshi writer.

Jamil Ahmed, a Pakistani author whose book, “The Wandering Falcon,” was a finalist, said that it took 40 years to publish the book. The retired bureaucrat wrote about the tribal population living along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. He was born in pre-partition India and during his childhood he traveled across India with his family. That was when he said he first came in contact with tribes, which led him to “romanticize the tribes.”

“I want people to understand that tribes are not savage,” he said.

A work by the Indian author Uday Prakash, “The Walls of Delhi,” was also a finalist. The book, actually three novellas, was originally written in Hindi. The stories highlight the flaws of the state, including bureaucracy and the deep entrenchment of corruption, and it is narrated by three characters, a weaver, sweeper and a baby in a slum suffering from an undiagnosed disease. Mr. Prakash said these narratives symbolized the lives led by 70 percent Indians.

Other finalists included the Indian writer Amitav Ghosh for his book “River of Smoke,” the Pakistani writer Mohammed Hanif, for “Our Lady of Alice Bhatti” and Tahmima Anam, the author of “The Good Muslim,” from Bangladesh.

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